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Transportation, Climate and the Job Ahead
Terrell Holder Sat Jun 20, 2009 3:00 pm
Without dramatic reductions in GHG emissions soon we’ll be into some really bad s-h-i-t. And as Jackie correctly points out, changes are already happening fast according to the latest research linked below from the Pew Center on Global Climate Change. Everyone should read this document. 1.
While 50% reduction of VMT in the next 365 days on a national level is a desirable goal, it’s not likely IMO. If everyone that thought the climate change was a very serious problem (44% of Americans) 2. stopped driving completely that would leave 66% still driving as usual. (44% reduction VMT) If the 71% of Americans that believe solid evidence of global warming exists, and it is at least serious, cut their VMT in half that would be a reduction of only 35.5%. This does not even consider infrastructure inadequacies (and insanities on the drawing board like the new spaghetti junction and bridges).
Adaptation will be as important as mitigation. Change is hard. It is a process. An addict must get in the program and work the steps to recover. Our society is no different. Change is a process that we need to understand if we are to make progress in any effort. 3.
It may however be an excellent local project, however, to A. try and increase the % of local people that think AGW is very serious (from <44% if usual Kentucky backwardness holds true) to 50% and B. come up with a strategy for that 50% to cut VMT 50%. That would be a local reduction of 25% in a year if successful (assuming that everyone drives the same number of miles to start with.)
There are at least 5 levels on which we must operate: Personal, Local, State, National and International. The strategy differs at each level. You know how the Feds work. Start strong, go slow and get weaker and give money to the military and highway dept. IMHO we need to get what we can from them when the iron is hot and do the hard work locally and regionally.
We could start a campaign. Get a FIG going, do the work, make it happen here.
(1.) http://www.pewclimate.org/docUploads/Key-Scientific-Developments-Since-IPCC-4th-Assessment.pdf
(2.) http://www.yaleclimatemediaforum.org/2009/04/growing-role-for-new-media/ from ==> http://people-press.org/report/417/a-deeper-partisan-divide-over-global-warming (linked at PEW Center on Global Climate Change http://www.pewclimate.org/communicating )
(3.) http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Transtheoretical_Model
While 50% reduction of VMT in the next 365 days on a national level is a desirable goal, it’s not likely IMO. If everyone that thought the climate change was a very serious problem (44% of Americans) 2. stopped driving completely that would leave 66% still driving as usual. (44% reduction VMT) If the 71% of Americans that believe solid evidence of global warming exists, and it is at least serious, cut their VMT in half that would be a reduction of only 35.5%. This does not even consider infrastructure inadequacies (and insanities on the drawing board like the new spaghetti junction and bridges).
Adaptation will be as important as mitigation. Change is hard. It is a process. An addict must get in the program and work the steps to recover. Our society is no different. Change is a process that we need to understand if we are to make progress in any effort. 3.
It may however be an excellent local project, however, to A. try and increase the % of local people that think AGW is very serious (from <44% if usual Kentucky backwardness holds true) to 50% and B. come up with a strategy for that 50% to cut VMT 50%. That would be a local reduction of 25% in a year if successful (assuming that everyone drives the same number of miles to start with.)
There are at least 5 levels on which we must operate: Personal, Local, State, National and International. The strategy differs at each level. You know how the Feds work. Start strong, go slow and get weaker and give money to the military and highway dept. IMHO we need to get what we can from them when the iron is hot and do the hard work locally and regionally.
We could start a campaign. Get a FIG going, do the work, make it happen here.
(1.) http://www.pewclimate.org/docUploads/Key-Scientific-Developments-Since-IPCC-4th-Assessment.pdf
(2.) http://www.yaleclimatemediaforum.org/2009/04/growing-role-for-new-media/ from ==> http://people-press.org/report/417/a-deeper-partisan-divide-over-global-warming (linked at PEW Center on Global Climate Change http://www.pewclimate.org/communicating )
(3.) http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Transtheoretical_Model
Terrell Holder- Posts : 20
Join date : 2009-03-11 -
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